Gallup: Obama breaks 50% for the 1st time in poll [Updated w/graphs]

There is now serious and sustained national momentum for Barack Obama. In the Gallup daily tracking poll, he is now at 52% vs 42% for HRC. This is the highest he has ever been in this poll and the 3rd consecutive day that he has polled at 50% or higher.

Update- Thanks to Al Rodgers for posting the image. Please give him mojo.

Rasmussen's daily tracker shows him ahead by 5 points, 47% to 42%.

Rasmussen's tracker also shows Obama surging nationally against McCain in the general election match up.  While HRC is down by 10%, 50% to 40%,  Obama only trails by 3%, 47% to 44%.  Just 3 days ago, Obama was down 10%, 51% to 41%.

Here is a graph of the Rasmussen Daily Tracker:

And the smooth combination of Gallup AND Rasmussen:

That's a trend if I ever saw one.

I hope this is the beginning of the end of the primary.  I imagine if Hillary continues to drop in the polls, the media will actually report it.  This would reinforce calls for Hillary to drop out and bolster the idea that she is an electoral spoiler.

•  Tips, flames, and comments please n/t

  by ARingMD2B on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:04:32 AM PDT

  •  (sings) And now, the end is near,....

    As Hillary faces the final curtain.....

    by Last Best Chance on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:08:50 AM PDT

    •  But, She did it herrrrrrrrrrrrr wayyyyyyyyyy n/t

      by AlyoshaKaramazov on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:21:10 AM PDT

      •  re

        Tuzlan Style™

        by cookiesandmilk on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:22:21 AM PDT

        •  the Tuzlan Twist,

          and new and improved dance video for
          Hillareeee! and Democraceee!

          Of course, she is bound to put something even more repulsive out on the ewetoobs.

          by agnostic on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:27:40 AM PDT

          •  just think if the Tuzla thing

            hadn't come out until the end of October.......

            She would drop 5-10 points because of it.  Look what they did to a real war veteran, John Kerry.  They would murderize her on this.  Worse than we are, definitely.

            by AlyoshaKaramazov on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:59:15 AM PDT

            •  Tuzla is infact slamming her

              But I think electibility voters saw two things:

              1- Obama was legitimately swiftboated but held firm with independents because both his Brand/Image and his speech on race held his support together, giving him a certain 'immunity' to the potential ahead

              2- Hillary was swiftboated and fumbled several times then ignored it then mispoke then tried to change the subject and still hasn't put it to rest and is again ignoring it...

              all the while rumors fly it's over, the math is impossible, she's short on cash and even now can't pay bills.

              Hillary ideologues will be the last to go but Hillary voters who are realists and want a D to win First, but always felt she was simply the stronger candidate (Based on history with the echo-chamber) vs Barack who was new and untest now have witnessed a public testing and are moving in unison to hillary.

              These are not issue voters

              These are not identity voters

              These are Democrats who were with Hillary on the Electability Argument which is now pretty well laid to rest.

              by Steven R on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:21:52 AM PDT

              •  obviously i meant moving to obama

                oh and one other observation, this is a Weekend poll too, can't wait to see what the weekday numbers show...

                How long will it take for the media to catch wind that a serious separation has occurred?  Not only is it impossible to catch up, but now the national polling is leaving her behind and he's showing renewed strength against John McCain...

                by Steven R on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:24:55 AM PDT

                •  One thing

                  Hillary wasn't swiftboated.  There was video, there was Sinbad.  It wasn't a made up attack, or even exaggerated.

                  by DrJeremy on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 02:17:30 PM PDT

              •  totally agree

                i know a co-worker whose parents have been pro-hillary.  had no problems with her tactics because they thought that would be the only way to win the general.  when wright came out, they thought obama was done.  but now they are in obama's camp after, of all things, tuzla.  they think she blew it and is now unelectable.

                by hn on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:25:43 AM PDT

                •  If you're going to lie, make sure there's no tape

                  Good heavens. Once you lose your credibility, it is very hard to get it back. Just ask Al Gore.

                  by Shiborg on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:48:54 AM PDT

                  •  And don't make it Valor Theft........nt

                    by kafkananda on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:08:55 PM PDT

                  •  It cost her credibility on two fronts

                    It made people question her character, honesty, and integrity-that's nothing new for the Clintons; but it also caused people to question her intelligence.  Why lie when the truth would have served just as well?  Why lie when there is videotape?

                    by greenboy on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:22:05 PM PDT

                    •  Also fed right into the fact

                      that a majority of people didn't trust her in the first place.  If you're going to do something like this, the worst thing you can do is something that plays right in to the issue people have with you in the first place.

                      by DrJeremy on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 02:19:17 PM PDT

                    •  Actually

                      I think people hoped she wasn't as clinoesque as her husband and she blew it with Tuzla

                      by Lib Noodle on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 02:42:12 PM PDT

                  •  And when people start to laugh

                    at you, you're done.  Ask Howard Dean (well, he had the last laugh there, but still).

                    by DrJeremy on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 02:18:25 PM PDT

                •  that's right

                  Can you imagine Hillary, who has lied about sniper fire, going against a guy like McCain who has actually seen combat?

                  It would make her look totally ridiculous. I think it's much worse than Rev. Wright, because it is something SHE said, not something somebody else said.

                  by existenz on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:54:55 AM PDT

                  •  don't forget the ridiculous soccer lie

                    that she told in the late 90's - implying that SHE a 60 year old woman played soccer in middle school (which they called Jr. High in those days) and was chastised by the goaley (sp?)

                    where does this stuff come from?

                    by TheUrbanRevolution on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:06:35 PM PDT

                    •  That's a new on one me - what is it? nt

                      by 417els on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:31:03 PM PDT

                    •  She must have meant field hockey.

                      I'm close to her age and the girls played field hockey in those days -- at least a private girls schools they did.  Not sure in public school if they even did that.

                      by GMFORD on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 01:04:42 PM PDT

                      •  Soccer too

                        I'm also close within a couple of years of her age, and played both field hockey and soccer in a private girls' school.

                        by Ducktape on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 02:22:14 PM PDT

                        •  Then I imagine Hillary probably

                          did play soccer.  That's the trouble with playing fast and loose with the truth.  People don't know what to believe any more.  

                          by GMFORD on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 02:46:02 PM PDT

                    •  Here's the link

                      http://pundits.thehill.com/...

                      by Junkyard Dem on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 01:11:27 PM PDT

                    •  soccer

                      Umm, I don't get the problem. She was not 60 then and we did have soccer...am I missing something?

                      by terra gazelle on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 01:51:06 PM PDT

                      •  Not for girls. Not when she was in

                        junior high.  Not until decades later.  At least, not in the Northeast.  Maybe in CA?

                        by DrJeremy on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 02:20:48 PM PDT

                      •  Not for girls.

                        eom

                        by DrJeremy on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 02:23:29 PM PDT

                      •  I'm not quite her age (I'm 57),

                        but I remember that back when I was in junior high school (as it was called then), ca. 1962-64, no one played soccer yet.

                        In high school, the boys (but not the girls) started playing soccer, but only as one of the sports they played during gym class, not as varsity sport with a school team. Girls played field hockey and lacrosse.

                        This was at suburban public schools in the "Greater Philadelphia" area.

                        by Donna in Rome on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 03:55:37 PM PDT

                        •  Correction --

                          In high school the boys did have soccer teams (but not the girls).

                          by Donna in Rome on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 04:09:42 PM PDT

                •  'of all things'

                  I say OF COURSE.

                  The average person who is aware of Hillary's lies about Bosnian sniper fire knows deep down that it KILLS her candidacy.  It just does.

                  This is an absolute deal-breaker in a general election, particularly during two wars and particularly against a Republican nominee who is a genuine war her with real film footage to back it up.

                  Hillary's lies were preposterous when you think about it. The president's wife and only child running for the lives dodging bullets in a war zone - you don't lie about that for 4 months and expect to win the presidency and become commander-in-chief. You just don't.

                  That whole craziness made Obama's pastor look like marshmallow fluff in comparison.  I believe even the die-hard Hillary people who are in denial right now have to realize it deep down.

                  by RobertInWisconsin on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:26:13 PM PDT

              •  That wasn't swiftboating, that was lying.

                No one made up a lie or discredited her with wanton disregard for the truth. She lied. That's not swiftboating. That's, umm, fabricating and getting caught at it.

                by parker parrot on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:19:51 PM PDT

                •  Swiftboating

                  I'm finding the term is used too broadly here, sometimes.

                  For the most part, swiftboating is large scale character assassination using unproven allegations, falsehoods, exaggerations, or distortions to discredit a political candidate.

                  by Junkyard Dem on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 01:14:31 PM PDT

                  •  Yup. I agree. Doesn't include shooting yourself

                    in the foot.

                    by parker parrot on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 01:48:21 PM PDT

                  •  Exactly

                    And, to be even more precise, switfboating is rovian character assassination by turning a person's percieved strength into a weakness using unproven allegations, falsehoods, exaggerations, or distortions. This is what the Swiftboat Liars for Truth did to Kerry, whose percieved strength was his military experience.

                    by Monte Cristo on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 02:06:16 PM PDT

              •  Hillary wasn't swiftboated

                She repeatedly told a tall tale (to put it nicely) that wasn't remotely true, but the truth was caught on tape and the contradiction was rightly pointed out.

                Compare this with some guys making John Kerry sound like a liar, who didn't deserve the purple heart, who was living a lie, despite no evidence to back up their claims.

                Compare this to Obama being repeatedly slammed for something his pastor said about America when he wasn't even at church. On the whole, his pastor was being critical of America in some regards, but it wasn't the same sort of homophobic, sexist, intolerant hate speech that the right-wing (white) pastors, who've supported McCain, say everyday and get a free ride with in the media.

                by poxonyou on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 05:43:51 PM PDT

            •  Donuts on the cuff

              Maybe they can save the Greg Craig's memo til then...

              http://thepage.time.com/...

              Americans are usually careful of their money...they do not like it wasted. What will her doners think when they find out she spent almost $6,000.00 on donuts...owes hundreds of businesses that depend on being paid, and is nearly broke? Once she pays herself, she will have enough for a media buy and a a few days of campaigning.

              http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/...

              by terra gazelle on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 01:46:03 PM PDT

          •  But but but

            Don't they know that Obama said he was a professor when in all actuality, he was a senior lecturer who was only regarded as a professor.  He's a LIAR!

            /snark

            by bbrown8370 on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:01:41 AM PDT

            •  And not only that,

              The WAPO says Obama "overstated" the Kennedys' role in helping his father. Oh, my god, what will come next? Not to mention that WAPO is burying yesterday's Texas count, acting as if it didn't happen. Why don't I believe that the media are coddling Obama and beating up on Clinton?

              more snark

              by martyc35 on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:38:06 AM PDT

              •  The media are being left behind

                They are becoming increasingly irrelevant to this election.

                by slippytoad on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 01:10:56 PM PDT

            •  was this part of his foreign policy experience?

              Or maybe is domestic policy experience.

              But regarding professor vs. lecturer - here's what one student had to say:
              "..Erika Walsh, an '02 grad practicing family law in Chicago, called him "an extraordinary scholar on the law."

              "I can't imagine there is somebody out there smarter than he is," she said. "Many of our professors are so brilliant they are eccentric. But Barack Obama has an ability to reach across differences and communicate with people effectively."... " from the Sun Times

              Now let's here from those people in Ireland who speak of the great fight that Clinton engaged in, so that they could have peace.  Or let's here for the refugees of Kosovo about the long hours of negotiations to open the boarders of Macedonia.  Or from the women of China who now have new freedoms because of Clinton's hard work.  We don't even need to mention Bosnia.

              by TheUrbanRevolution on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:14:38 PM PDT

          •  The Tuzla death spiral

            Ouch for Hillary.

            by Lefty Coaster on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:31:47 AM PDT

            •  Would love to see...

              that pilot, Goose Changose, get some airtime.  Whew!  He eviscerates her.  C'mon Chris Matthews!  C'mon Keith!  Find the colonel and have him tell his tale.

              by mayan on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:34:42 AM PDT

            •  Why did the MSM only give a few days coverage

              of Tuzla and two weeks of Wright?  Oh-stupid question, never mind, MSM is the answer in itself.

              by mouser68 on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:01:43 PM PDT

            •  I believe it's a corkscrew maneuver. (n/t)

              by Spunkmeyer on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:03:32 PM PDT

              •  Not if you have a wing blown off...

                by sniper fire.

                Heh, in this case it was self inflicted.

                by Clive all hat no horse Rodeo on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 01:44:34 PM PDT

        •  The Battle of Tuzla Tarmac

          Never have so few done so little for so many 7th graders and Air Force Male Glee Club members.  Sigh.  Quick, Hillary, duck!  Run!  I hear there's some nice bomb shelters in Scranton.

          by mayan on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:33:16 AM PDT

          •  Hillary's saying to herself:

            "It's that little girl's fault. If she'd been a real sniper, I'd be the nominee by now."

            by Shiborg on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:53:03 AM PDT

      •  this will work

        by MadAsHellMaddie on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:29:46 AM PDT

      •  Thanks

        Your comment is the best laugh I've had all week!

        by DCNana on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:33:16 AM PDT

        •  Last Best Chance set it all up n/t

          by AlyoshaKaramazov on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:00:32 AM PDT

          •  Snifff...

            I kinda imagine Bill and Hill's Sunday mornings in the future as being kinda like this:

            by mayan on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:45:09 AM PDT

    •  Turn out the lights, Hillary

      The party's over!

      by elwior on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:28:37 AM PDT

      •  Shirley Bassey won't let us embed the link

        but you can head over to youtube and hear her sing it for yourself...

        by litho on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:41:05 AM PDT

        •  I'm Giving you

          a 12 although it looks like a 4. . .any reference to Shirley Bassey diserves at least a 12!

          by Shirl In Idaho on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:48:39 AM PDT

          •  Goldfinger!

            HAH! Where's my 12?

            by mayan on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:06:39 PM PDT

            •  Here she is

              singing it!

              At this link you can find a recent interview with her in which she talks about how she came to record it.

              by litho on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:22:12 PM PDT

        •  nice!

          by elwior on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:12:54 PM PDT

      •  Media narrative

        Don't count her out!?!?!?

        And to think sad little Clinton is 'threatening' to have a floor fight at the Convention--let's see how well that does for her in the polls.

        by Wary on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:58:15 AM PDT

      •  The party's over...

        I tried to Willie Nelson to do it but HRC's campaign couldn't come up with the scratch for Willie...so all I could find is this cover.

        by mayan on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:38:22 AM PDT

        •  I tried to "get" Willie Nelson..

          that is...damned mimosas!

          by mayan on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:43:07 AM PDT

    •  I love your 'comments signature'

      by echoes4444 on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:40:14 AM PDT

    •  Well you have to say one thing for Hillary ...

      She did it her way!

      by Glinda on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:43:03 AM PDT

      •  She did it Penn's way. n/t

        by Fonsia on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:15:19 AM PDT

        •  and it will only get worse

          Hillary still has to release her tax returns from the past 7 years.  Considering how reluctant she has been to release them, I'm guessing there is some damaging info there.

          Even more important, where is the list of donors to the Clinton library? Or how about a list of her earmark requests?

          Hillary has plenty of more room to fall.

          And let's not forget that McCain hasn't released his tax returns either.

          by existenz on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:34:36 PM PDT

        •  Eh ... I think it's pretty much

          "the Clinton way". Penn is a tool!

          by Glinda on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 01:16:04 PM PDT

    •  we need to stop

      saying that this thing is over.  We know is over but we don't have to say it because it makes her supporters upset and alienated.  We can't afford that this time around.

      We just needs to let things happens -- and they will happen -- and once May 6 is here, most everyone will realize it (both Obama and Clinton supporters) that's actually over.  But there is not to say it again and again because we just follow the MSM meme.

      by ovelarde on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:08:33 AM PDT

      •  agreed

        there's no point in belaboring what should be obvious, is there, except, perhaps, for gloating

        let's try to be big about this

        by wystler on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:21:16 AM PDT

      •  I agree completely....her supporters

        need to feel that they did all that they could to get her the nomination (and by supporters I mean regular folk, not the Penn's and Sabean's of the world) and that more people preferred Obama.  That will become clear, I believe, after North Carolina and Indiana.

        by CeeusBeeus on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:23:39 AM PDT

      •  And quite frankly... it's when ppl start saying

        she's done that sympathetic women and republicans come out to save her ass.  So everyone really needs to shhh.

        by LJW on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:46:23 AM PDT

      •  Some body has to say it.

        The Supers are too afraid to say it, no one in HRC's entourage has the balls to say it. Billy C will be the last one to say it. Soooo it's up to the press and the people to say it. It's kind of like the TV show "Intervention".

        by eddieb061345 on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:51:12 AM PDT

      •  Yep, no need to add fuel the funeral pyre

        Speaking of funerals, Slate's Hillary Death Watch had her losing 1.7 points (down to 10.3%) on Friday thanks in part to the polls released that day. Tomorrow it should really tank. Hey, I've got to find some way to pass the time to restrain myself from responding to Hillary supporters. The earliest this is over is May 6 (37 very long days) unless by some miracle he wins PA.

        I feel bad for them, honestly, god knows, we've all been there, and supporting the losing candidate sux bigtime. Sure, it's her own candidate's fault, and it stings us because their gal tried to take down our guy, so it's tempting to crow, but we can follow Barack's example about this and be gracious. We will need these guys when this is all over to come together as Democrats. Even if that's something Hillary doesn't get, we do, and I think most of her supporters do too.

        by SheaG on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 12:28:42 PM PDT

      •  This isn't about her -- it's about Obama

        Who is the transformational candidate I've been waiting to vote for my whole political life.  He may say that we are the change we've been waiting for, but it's so hard to catapult someone to his position who doesn't get eaten up by cynicism or compromised by power-lust . . . it's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

        I'm done talking about anyone else.  I won't read diaries about her.  I won't write them.  I won't comment about her.  I won't use her name.

        I'm interested in what can happen with an Obama Presidency.  So let's get there already.

        by slippytoad on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 01:16:33 PM PDT

  •  re

    it is starting to feel like how one's fever breaks after being sick in bed for a while.

    It's almost over.

    by cookiesandmilk on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:13:50 AM PDT

    •  that's a really good analogy

      especially since my actual fever just broke.

      by AlyoshaKaramazov on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:22:11 AM PDT

    •  Clinton --the

      Election year fever---just got to sweat it out!

      by Wary on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 11:00:13 AM PDT

  •  Obama should just keep talking.

    The more people hear him without the MSM filters, the more they like him. He is his own best publicist.

    Hillary, not so much.

    by Shiborg on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:18:06 AM PDT

    •  that's why when they both

      go into a fresh state to campaign, and she's 20 points ahead (from name-recognition mostly) her numbers dip, and his start climbing.

      by AlyoshaKaramazov on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 10:23:22 AM PDT

      •  I do wonder...

         ...how much longer this pattern is going to hold, though.

         Barack Obama isn't the relative unknown he was six months ago. I can't imagine that the first time he appears in a state marks the first time voters have ever heard of him. His image is a lot more fixed now.

         The good news is that it's a positive image.

         That said, Barack's campaign can't make any assumptions about anything. He needs to campaign like this thing is still up in the air.

        by Buzzer on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 01:34:01 PM PDT

        •  I don't think the coverage matters so much...

          in Obama's case. The talking heads & political flacks can say what they want about him being a slick liar and a hack politician, but anyone who sees & hears Obama must wonder if they are talking about someone else. It may end up being the media spinners & flacks who lose credibility.

          I was in the car the other day, listening to a C-SPAN broadcast of an Obama event with some college students in North Carolina. I was really struck by the tone & the way he talked to those students--no bullshit, no condescension, no evident spinning or pandering. I thought, "Damn! I could listen to this guy for eight years!"

          by Shiborg on Sun Mar 30, 2008 at 02:18:43 PM PDT

    •  That's REAL key